Forecast of kraft paper market price trend in 2021

Forecast of kraft paper market price trend in 2021

release date: Source: zhuochuang paper

2020 kraft paper market presents a narrow range consolidation trend, and the overall fluctuation range is small. September coincides with the Chinese Spring Festival, and public health events have occurred. The trading activity of market players has decreased, so they are cautious and stable; In March, the market operators gradually resumed work, the upstream pulp market rose narrowly, and the paper price rose with the raw material market, up/ton; In April, the buyer and the seller played a game. The overall volume of downstream demand was slow, and the offer of paper enterprises was reduced by/ton. In May, the upstream pulp price continued to be under pressure, the downstream demand continued to be depressed, and the paper enterprises lowered 200/ton again; In the off-season, the atmosphere is obvious, the downstream terminal procurement is weak, and the paper enterprises are weak and stable for negotiation; In August, large-scale paper enterprises reduced the factory quotation slightly, stimulating the Mid Autumn Festival and national day double festival shipments; In September, the paper enterprises held a steady offer, and the market trading was generally flat; In October, the scale of paper enterprises followed the rise. Pulp is other paper types, tentatively rising, with a year-on-year increase of 21.5% 200/ton, and the market acceptance is general; In November, the scale paper enterprises again tried to increase by a range of/ton, and the resistance of downstream terminals was widespread, and the increase was stranded; In December, the upstream pulp market rose sharply, and kraft paper manufacturers responded, reproducing the rise action, increasing by/ton. However, the rise did not meet expectations because the downstream just needed to replenish the stock

the kraft paper market may continue to consolidate in 2021, with an overall stable and upward trend. The peak appeared in October. The national average price of kraft paper in 2021 is expected to be 7415/ton, up 3.60% year-on-year. The highest point is expected to be 7600/ton in October; The lowest point was 7233/ton in January, and the fluctuation amount was about 400/ton. In, due to the favorable fermentation and continuous release of plastic restrictions, the production capacity of kraft paper continued to increase. At the same time, some other paper production lines switched to kraft paper, and the market supply was extremely sufficient. It is expected that the average price will increase by 0.47% year-on-year in 2022 and 0.67% year-on-year in 2023

the main factors affecting the kraft paper market in 2021 are: 1 From the perspective of supply, nearly 250000 tons of new capacity will be put into the domestic kraft paper market in 2021, and the situation of market supply exceeding demand will further expand. 2. From the demand side, with the progress of epidemic prevention, the domestic and foreign demand is expected to increase in 2021. 3. In terms of cost, the price trend of natural color pulp in 2021 may show a steady, medium and small upward trend, and the cost side will form an effective support. 4. From the perspective of policy, the latest plastic restriction order issued on January 19, 2020 proposed to promote the application of substitutes, including polyurethane acrylate (PUA) or polyurethane (PU) coated products directly in the mold cavity after the molding of disposable plastic thermoplastic matrix, and substitutes for express plastic packaging. At present, one of the mature substitutes is kraft paper bags. This measure may promote the development of kraft paper, such as the replacement of fast-moving consumer goods such as paper bags and straw paper, but most of the market players have not made substantive operations. It is expected that paper will replace plastic or enter the promotion fast lane in the next year, and the increase in demand will appear significantly

to sum up, zhuochuang information predicts that the kraft paper price may show a narrow adjustment in 2021, and the overall trend is stable, with the highest point in the fourth quarter or around 7600/ton. In the first quarter, affected by factors such as the high level of the upstream pulp market and the shutdown and maintenance plan during the Spring Festival holiday, kraft paper manufacturers maintained stability and pushed up operations. In the second quarter, the overall market trading was stable. Before the project was officially put into production, other paper enterprises may have a small willingness to increase. However, due to the overall increase in downstream demand or being limited, paper enterprises may further reduce prices to stimulate shipments; 3、 In the fourth quarter, paper enterprises continued to follow the rise of other paper types, while the peak season support of upstream raw materials, but the downstream demand may be difficult to form effective support, and kraft paper prices may rebound slightly first and then decline narrowly