The hottest guoyongxin China's paper industry high

Guoyongxin: Strategic Countermeasures for the high-quality development of China's paper industry

release date: Source: China paper/China paper media

at the 12th China Paper Industry Development Forum, guoyongxin, Executive Secretary General of the China Light Industry Federation, issued a thematic report entitled "strategic countermeasures for the high-quality development of China's paper industry". The report introduces the strategic countermeasures for the high-quality development of China's paper industry from two aspects: how to look at the situation and what we should do

this article is sorted out according to the on-site report of Secretary General Guo Yongxin

Guo Yongxin, Executive Secretary General of the China Light Industry Federation

1 what is the situation?

the current economic situation in China is the result of the joint action of long-term and short-term, internal and external factors. China's economy is changing from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, and the external environment has also undergone profound changes. Some policy effects need to be further released. At present, there are changes in the stable operation of the economy, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, some enterprises have more difficulties in operation, and the long-term accumulated risks and hidden dangers have been exposed. We should attach great importance to this, enhance predictability, and take timely countermeasures

1.1 overall macroeconomic situation

in the first three quarters, China's economy was generally stable and structural adjustment was advancing steadily. In the first three quarters, GDP increased by 6.2% year-on-year. In terms of quarters, the year-on-year growth in the first quarter decreased by 6.4%, the second quarter increased by 6.2%, and the third quarter increased by 6.0%

the National Bureau of statistics predicted in July that China's GDP growth in 2019 would be 6.3%. Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of statistics, said that the growth rate of 6.3% was in the forefront of major economies in the world

according to the prediction of the world bank in October, the global economic growth rate in 2019 is 2.5%, which is worse than the expected 2.9% in January and lower than the prediction in June

the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out that at present, China's economic development is facing new risks and challenges, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy is increasing. We must enhance our awareness of hardship, grasp the long-term trend, grasp the main contradictions, be good at turning danger into opportunity, and do our own things well

from January to September this year, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved an operating income of 77.67 trillion, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. From January to September, industrial enterprises above Designated Size nationwide achieved a total profit of 4593.35 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. In the first three quarters of this year, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year, which is within the annual expected target range of 5.5% - 6%, and the economic indicators reflecting industrial restructuring and new kinetic energy growth performed well

1.2 light industry situation

compared with the upstream heavy chemical industry, the development situation of light industry is good. Production has increased steadily and the structural adjustment is orderly; Rapid profit growth and improved operation quality; Export growth is stable and the structure is more balanced. The resilience of light industry is remarkable, and the results of high-quality development are beginning to show. It continues to meet the needs of people for a better life and makes a significant contribution to "stabilizing foreign trade"

various economic data of light industry are growing, higher than the national level. From January to September this year, the operating revenue of light industrial enterprises above designated size was 14.59 trillion, an increase of 4.07% year-on-year (0.43 percentage points lower than that of national industry); The total profit was 908.752 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 9.18% (11.49 percentage points higher than that of the country, 11.28 percentage points); The profit margin reached 6.24% (0.33 percentage points higher than that of national industry). The profit growth rate of light industry is 5.11 percentage points higher than the business growth rate

from January to August this year, the export volume of light industry increased by 6.34% year-on-year (5.94 percentage points higher than the national total), and the export volume of light industry accounted for 27.2% of the national total

many enterprises can also increase the profit of light industry by nearly 10% year-on-year according to the needs of the project, and the growth rate of most industries is more than 10%. From January to September this year, 13 of the 20 major light industry industries saw profit growth of more than 10%. Home appliance, food, wine and beverage industries actively meet the needs of consumption upgrading, with high scientific and technological content of products and rapid profit growth. Among them, the profit of home appliance industry increased by 14.92%, the profit of wine and beverage manufacturing industry increased by 17.57%, and the profit of food manufacturing industry increased by 12.55%

affected by multiple factors, the number of Enterprises above Designated Size in the national light industry has decreased from 113100 in 2018 to 106500 at present, reducing more than 6600 enterprises. The improvement of industrial concentration and the concentration of profits are important factors that affect the feelings of most enterprises

in 2018, the operating income of the top 100 light industry enterprises was 2.8 trillion, accounting for 14.3% of the national light industry; The profit is 282.2 billion, accounting for 22% of the national light industry. Speaking of polarization, light industry has released the top 100 enterprises in China's light industry. The top 100 enterprises in light industry account for less than one thousandth of our 113000 enterprises in the whole light industry. However, the operating revenue of these 100 enterprises accounts for 14.3% of the total, and the profit accounts for 22%. The top 100 enterprises account for 22% of our 113000 enterprises. We extend it to 100 to 200, so when it comes to 200, can it account for 40%? No, the top 200 enterprises account for 24% of our profits, the top 100 enterprises account for 22%, and the top 200 enterprises account for 24%, which means that money is mainly concentrated in the top 100 enterprises. From the top 100 enterprises to the top 200 enterprises, it is not very profitable, and 112900 enterprises after 200 enterprises, even less profitable. Therefore, through this data, we can better show the true face of our current industry

Sino US trade friction affected exports, and the trade index fell significantly. Everyone is concerned about the Sino US trade friction. At present, we call the impact of Sino US trade friction generally controllable. Take light industry as an example. If the decisive value of the year before the 2017 U.S. trade war is taken as the index 100, the export index in 2018 has also increased, reaching 109, but so far this year it is about 102, that is, exports to the United States have decreased compared with 2018, but compared with 2017, the absolute value is basically the same, so it is called overall controllable. But it should be divided into industries, such as leather industry and home furnishing industry. The raw leather is imported from the United States, but now the raw leather imported from the United States will be subject to a 25% tariff. After we make the sofa and export it to the United States, the United States will also levy a 25% tariff. But on the whole, the trade negotiations have made good progress and tensions have eased

1.3 paper industry situation

China's paper production growth slowed down, and production and consumption hit the ceiling. The output of the paper industry has slowed down. We judge that the current production and consumption have reached the ceiling. In terms of the general concept, the output has basically reached a ceiling in stages

China's papermaking revenue and profits fell sharply, and the benefit level fell to a low point. From January to September 2019, the output of machine-made paper and paperboard was 92.875 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.47%. The output in September was 10.856 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.38%. From January to September, the operating revenue of the paper industry was 525.496 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.18%. From January to September, the profit of the paper industry was 20.843 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 38.32%. While the output increased by 2.47%, the operating income of machine-made paper increased by -7.18%. Our output increased and our income decreased, more importantly, our profit. Just now we talked about a negative 20%. Everyone was shocked. When it comes to papermaking alone, our profit is negative 38%, so it is a particularly obvious extreme situation. So the profit of the industry in the first half of the year, compared with the same period, the whole industry from January to September, is about 20 billion. What is the concept? It is about the same as that of some particularly good listed companies. For example, the profit of Gree listed companies is more than 26 billion a year, Our current industry may be more than 20 billion in a year. Our whole industry is similar to Gree. We should see that we need to develop and have a long way to go

why is China's papermaking downturn? It is facing five unprecedented challenges

first, the population is negative. According to the survey of Tsinghua University, our population has started to grow negatively since about 2017. It was originally estimated that China's highest population was 1.6 billion. Now, up to 1.4 billion, Tsinghua University said that it had begun to grow negatively. Our paper production layout is based on per capita consumption, population value and total output. Now the population is growing negatively, which is a challenge for us

second, foreign trade is low. As a result, our consumption of packaging paper has been relatively reduced

third, domestic demand is slow. In terms of 20171, we can respond more quickly to the needs of the market and customers. Year by year, our domestic retail sales have generally increased by 12% and 13%, but now we have fallen to 7%, with a relatively large decline. Such a growth rate is also the slowest year of consumption growth in recent decades

fourth, strict environmental protection. The new trend of environmental protection in 2019 will be stricter, fiercer and wider

fifth, it is difficult for enterprises. There is a recent case in the paper industry that Quanlin paper industry is going bankrupt and restructured. Today, it shows that our industry has indeed encountered great difficulties

five challenges are the reasons for the current downturn in our paper industry. Therefore, the situation is generally stable and controllable, light industry has achieved remarkable results, and papermaking has slowed down

2 what should we do - national measures

the country puts forward two points: the first is to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and the second is to cultivate strong countries to produce high dynamic stress domestic consumption markets. As I said just now, there is a reason why light industry has achieved brilliant results. The experience of the whole light industry is worth learning from our paper industry. We have proposed to develop towards high quality and sustainable development. High quality development was put forward by the general secretary in the report of the 19th CPC National Congress. The general secretary has put forward specific ideas and requirements for high quality development on many occasions, such as scientific and technological innovation, opening up, the the Belt and Road, regional revitalization, intelligent manufacturing, the strengthening of state-owned enterprises, and the economic development of private enterprises. What is the connotation of high-quality development? We think there are three aspects. First, from the perspective of products, the quality is better, and new products are needed. Second, from the perspective of enterprises, you should have innovation vitality and dynamic change. Third, from the perspective of industrial system, you should be able to form a structure with optimized elements, and promote the further improvement of efficiency through the combination of industry, University and research, the integration and agglomeration of industrial chains

if the paper industry is high, there must be a ladder. Where is the ladder? Here I mention six points: first, strengthen independent innovation; Second, intelligent manufacturing empowerment; Third, promote industrial interconnection; Fourth, leading by high-end standards; Fifth, implement international layout; Sixth, practice green development. Technology drives development and innovation leads the future. The country has done a lot of work in this regard. The enterprises we are doing well now are also enterprises that have made great efforts in innovation

first, strengthen independent innovation. For example, Midea, which ranked first among China's top 100 light industry science and technology announced this year, invested 9.8 billion in scientific research last year

second, intelligent manufacturing empowerment. The general secretary specifically pointed out that we should promote the in-depth integration of Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and the real economy, and promote industrial technology upgrading with intelligent manufacturing as the main direction. In recent October, the general secretary sent 11 congratulatory letters in eight days, most of which were related to the improvement of the economy by Internet. It used to be enough to talk about automation. Now we need to talk about digitalization, networking and intelligence

third, promote industrial interconnection. This will become the engine for the reconstruction and upgrading of our entire industry, which is of great significance. In fact, industrial interconnection connects various intelligent manufacturing equipment production lines to form an intelligent manufacturing system, which has been widely used now