The most popular two factors supporting waste pape

2022-08-07
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The two factors supporting waste paper are weakened, and waste paper is facing great downward pressure

recently, the domestic waste yellow paper market has fallen into a downturn, and the price of waste yellow paper is easy to fall but difficult to rise. We believe that there are two main reasons for the current market downturn: first, the marginal slowdown of waste paper import contraction; Second, the pattern of low demand for finished paper continues

marginal slowdown of domestic waste paper import contraction

the price of domestic waste yellow paperboard rose in January this year, which is mainly due to the introduction of a series of domestic policies restricting the import of foreign waste paper, which has greatly inhibited the import of foreign waste paper. Under the expectation of import reduction, the price of domestic waste also went up all the way. However, as the market digests the import tightening policy, its support for waste paper prices is also weakening

from the rhythm of waste paper approval of the solid waste center this year, after the land Volume Approval in May and June, the approval started in July, even if the volume is enlarged again. On October 18 and November 1, it approved 2.01 million tons and 465700 tons respectively, and the number of paper enterprises that obtained approval also increased significantly. Although limited by the time limit of Hong Kong, there is not much room for the import of foreign waste, but the amount of approval will be increased at the end of the year, or a signal will be sent to the market, and the amount of approval will not be greatly tightened next year

from the import data, after May, the domestic waste paper import also showed an increasing pattern. It is reported that due to the impact of Hong Kong time, the new material industry policy information was released in a timely manner. Many paper enterprises had run out of approval documents in September. With the large volume of foreign waste approval documents, this means that the domestic waste paper arrival volume will continue to increase in the fourth quarter

from the perspective of policy, the newly released catalogue of imported waste management shows that 32 commodities will be listed as prohibited solid waste at the end of 2018 and 2019, and waste paper will not be included in the catalogue of these 32 commodities, that is, China will still allow the import of waste paper by 2021. From the current signs, we believe that after the significant tightening of the waste paper import policy in 2018, the space for tightening the domestic waste paper import policy in 2019 is very limited, and the approval and import of waste paper may not decrease significantly next year

the economic downturn depresses the demand for finished paper.

At present, the domestic paper industry is facing great difficulties, the demand for finished paper is low, and the finished paper inventory of paper enterprises is high. The sluggish demand for finished paper is mainly caused by the downward trend of the domestic economy and the grim situation of foreign trade

as packaging paper is widely used in food, beverage, clothing, electronics, household appliances, household chemicals, machinery and other fields, the main demand for packaging paper is derived from the consumption or export behavior of downstream consumer goods, so the packaging paper market has a strong correlation with the macro-economy, and waste paper, as the direct raw material of packaging paper, is also affected by macroeconomic fluctuations

from the above figure, we can see that the prices of packaging paper and waste paper are closely related to the economic trend. As packaging paper is facing terminal commodities, it still has a strong leading position in macroeconomic indicators

in 2018, the downward pressure on China's economic growth increased. On the one hand, the downward pressure on China's economy increased and consumption growth declined. On the other hand, affected by the Sino US trade war, China's exports may face the risk of stalling, which also put great pressure on the packaging paper industry, which has been clearly reflected in the second half of this year. With the economic downturn, the demand for packaging paper will weaken, which will also exert a strong pressure on the price of waste paper

on the whole, the factors that previously supported the price of waste paper are weakening. On the one hand, the marginal space for tightening the foreign waste policy is small, and the import volume of foreign waste will not decline significantly in the future; On the other hand, the domestic economic downturn and the rise of foreign trade risks will continue to depress the demand for domestic finished paper. Zhuochuang believes that China's paper industry will face great adjustment in the future, and at this stage, it is difficult for waste paper to perform well

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